A Niti Aayog official said that to get to a $5 trillion or $10 trillion economy by 2030 from the current levels of $2.9 trillion, India needs to grow at 11.5 per cent annually in nominal terms, or 7.5 per cent in real terms over the next 10 years.
The government’s target of achieving a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 sounds “too idealistic”, an Niti Aayog official said on Monday.
The target has been so set to raise the bar of India’s economic performance, she said.
“For now, the ambitious $5 trillion economy target is a statement of intent, which sounds too idealistic,” said Bindu Dalmia, chairperson of the National Committee on Financial Inclusion – Niti Aayog. India is “trapped” within a range-bound GDP growth of 5-6 per cent, she said at an MCCI-organised session here.
Bindu Dalmia said to get to a $5 trillion or $10 trillion economy by 2030 from the current levels of $2.9 trillion, India needs to grow at 11.5 per cent annually in nominal terms, or 7.5 per cent in real terms over the next 10 years.
“Now, it is not impossible (real GDP growth of about eight per cent) from the current base. But, it’s not easily doable either,” Bindu Dalmia added.
In January, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had met economists, private equity and venture capitalists, business leaders and agri experts at NITI Aayog, and called for focused efforts to achieve the target of making India a $5 trillion economy.
The Niti Aayog official said that the government spending has to be stepped up in the “absence” of private sector participation.
Bindu Dalmia said that there has to be a reduction on the dependency on agriculture to decrease poverty levels.
Agriculture can only sustain a growth of three per cent per annum, “while we need a growth of 10 per cent” to lift people out of poverty, Bindu Dalmia said.
Bindu Dalmia said India is on the cusp of the fourth industrial revolution, which will be “disruptive and holds the greatest potential as also peril” to transform entire systems and business models.
Bindu Dalmia also batted for a separate development financial institution (DFI) to boost lending for long- gestation infrastructure projects.